Wednesday, March 10, 2010

A month to Chippewa?

Well, I am a month out from Chippewa and I have 5 days to register for the lowest price ($55) after that it goes up $10. I was looking through my logs and my previous posts about Chippewa and I got to thinking, what are the odds of snow on April 10th?

This question actually splits into two categories, what are the odds of snow on the ground and what are the odds of snow falling from the air. I am more concerned with the snow on the ground issue as we need some warm temps and some rain to wash all of this stuff away and we have a chance of this happening. If I look at the odds of snow coming on that day, the normal temp for New Auburn, WI is a high of 53 and a low of 31 and a record hi of 81 and a low of 17 per, so I would say the odds are good for no snow coming down on us and if does it should melt. Of course in 2008, I would have said the same thing. The one thing that I see looking at the ever accurate forecast from Accuweather at least for the next 15 days is that they call for temps in the mid 40's with one day at 50 so some of the snow should be melting. Now calls for 3 or 4 days in the 50's over the next 10 days. So two weather sites confirm that I have a chance.

So with the weather analysis done, the race reviews from the past studied, the training not yet completed, the weight not all lost, the cross training not started but with the shoes at the ready, what should I do?

You have challenged me the last 2 years but I have finished both times. Some might say that the first year was a draw and the second year albeit a minor disaster for me, it was still a PR thanks to the snow the first year. So with that in mind, I have to admit that last year, you humbled me a bit and you helped me understand what I could endure as I survived some on course minor injuries added in dehydration followed by a wrong turn that added another mile and survived a fall or two, all in all I came away with a lot of respect for you the wonderfully delightful Chippewa course.

So, I have no choice but to say Chippewa here I come, let's go for 3 years in a row.


Wayne said...

are you sure? Like really really sure?? :)

Mike said...

Pretty sure, you can wait to see if I send it in, if I don't by Monday, well then I have a few more weeks of being pretty sure :)


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