Monday, March 28, 2011

Potawatomi is coming up -- weather forecast

It's getting to be time to check the long range weather forecast for the Potawatomi Trail Runs (formerly known as the McNaughton Trail Runs). I should add that two days ago the forecast was for rain, yesterday was 62 and sunny, and then today it's 70 and rain:

I like the looks of the temps, the rain we can wait and see if it's an issue and we got an email from the race director saying that the course was in good shape and not too wet, stay tuned for additional weather updates over the coming 2 weeks.

Regardless of the weather we are committed and will do what it takes to get through our distances. My current plans are still to pace Wayne and Karen for the first two loops, a couple of loops during the night and then work through another loop at some point. I checked my last year loop pace times to give me an idea of what to expect.

McNaughton 2010 Time of Day Loop Time Pace/Mile
0 06:00:00 AM

10 08:21:48 AM 02:21:48 00:14:11
20 10:55:02 AM 02:33:14 00:15:19
30* 02:01:34 PM 03:06:32 00:18:39
40** 05:45:07 PM 03:43:33 00:22:21
50*** 09:08:16 PM 03:23:09 00:20:19

* was slowing with dehydration then had to walk after the rope hill with a calf injury
** continued to walk and I took a 20 to 30 minute break to ice the calf
*** basically walked it in, with an occasional jog

So if we shoot for basically my loop 2 times, they should be in good shape, for the night loops even if they slow to my final loop which was at least half done in the dark, I think they will be fine. The key will be for them to keep moving and get in as many loops as they can in daylight below the 3 hour loop pace time. Pretty simple 8 loops at less than 3 hours per loop plus a couple at 3 1/2 hours will get them done in around 30 hours. Sounds easy to me :-).

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