Do I think I will have a great day, no, will I PR, yes. There are two reasons why I expect to PR, the first reason, I have never run a 50k at Afton so it will be a PR for the course, 2nd reason, my other 50k was Chippewa in the snow and although Afton is a tougher course, I think I should do better without snow.
So as the race approaches should I be nervous, probably, am I no, do I fear a DNF, no unless the weather goes into the mid-90s, I should be able to work my way through it, what does worry me is getting passed by the 25k'ers and then most of the 50k'ers. It is for this reason that I like single loop or point to point courses much more than out and back or multiple loops. It can get bothersome with all of the runners working to get by, at Afton, there are many places where it will be tight but there are a lot of places were it shouldn't be an issue. Who knows maybe the sound of footsteps will help me through some low points.
Monday - 6 - Lebanon Hills - ok run, felt better than the day before
Wednesday - 6 - Hyland - not good, did do some hills. need to adjust to heat
Thursday - Softball - chose not to run, good choice, softball
Saturday - 6 - River Bottoms - went with Karyn, aborted, she had low blood sugar and my legs were still sore from softball so it worked out fine.
Sunday - 12 - Lebanon Hills - Felt good, not perfect but the legs had some energy for the first time since M2M
Total for the week 30 miles covered in 4 days of running (Goal was 35 miles over 5).
All in all, I got done what I wanted, a final mid distance run ahead of Afton and no additional injuries. I wanted to throw in a speed session but substituted some hills since the legs were dead. I will run a couple of times between now and Saturday to try and ease into Afton.
If the weather turns out good (not too hot - a light rain would be welcome), the body works (knee pain is acceptable) and I avoid stupidity, I will have a nice enjoyable PR. My plan to avoid stupidity is to walk the steep uphills, run the flats and the not so steep hills and to be careful on the steep downhills. I will need to remind myself of my last training run at Afton where I went down Nigel hill hard and then got to experience a 3x increase in pain.
Slow and steady will be my plan and don't be stupid will be my mantra.
As to my prediction of time for Afton, that is indeed a good question that I would normally spend a bit of time on but the reality is I will let the day and the time take care of themselves and simply try to finish with a smile on my face..........