Trends are interesting once you notice

I was looking at my log book the other day when I noticed a couple of trends, one good and one not so good.

First the not so good, I noticed that after long runs over 2 1/2 hours, I struggled the next day with another long run. When I went out less than 2 hours, my long runs were fine. Now it could be related to sleep, health, fueling, weather, mental focus and/or a handful of other things but it might be the longer runs the day before. I always tell folks (young engineers) at work that a single data point does not show a trend but two might (good advice for Quality as well, more on that another day). Well, I have 3 of them and after all 3, I failed the next day on a longer run. So what should I do with this info? That's easy, take more data points and eliminate as many other variables as possible like sleep, fuel, etc.... So, stay tuned as I will enjoy working my way through this issue.

On the good side, I set a couple of goals for the year regarding my mileage and after one month I may have the start of a trend. Remember a single data point does not a trend show but I still like the direction.

Miles for January of 2008 - 40 (a very low number indeed)
Miles for January of 2009 - 109 (a 273% improvement and a PR for January)

Projected miles for 2009 after January ~ 1389 (a bit below but hey it's only January)

Miles for February of 2008 - 80 (better than January)
Miles projected for February of 2009 - 157 (a 196% improvement)

Projected miles for 2009 after February ~ 1645 (where I want to be after February)

One other miscellaneous fact from 2008 - highest mileage month was April with 146 miles. So if I make my February goal, another record will be reached as I that would also be my all time high for any month and of course a PR for the month of February.

So I will plod my way onward and see if I can get a second month in and continue the trend upward..........